Conference tourney week: Rutgers, Rider and the utter belief of March
We're less than a week from Selection Sunday, and an unmatchable hope is in the air.
I had the good fortune to split my weekend between two different Senior Days, Saturday in Lawrenceville and Sunday in Piscataway. One gym just off 206 with a capacity under 2,000, another building much larger – though still considered compact for its league – packed to the brim with fans excited about the possibility of an NCAA Tournament bid.
Something seeps into players’ bones when it’s Senior Day. Especially because it coincides with this time of year, the flipping of calendars from February to March, from regular season to postseason, from winter to spring.
The Rider Broncs, for starters, could have had a better beginning to their season. It didn’t look like they’d be going much of anywhere when Rick Pitino’s Iona team shellacked them 80-54 in December. They opened conference play 1-6.
But Kevin Baggett and his group started to turn things around. The Broncs crashed the boards and tightened up on defense. Soon they pocketed road wins against Siena and Saint Peter’s, two of the top three teams in the league. After a four-game winning streak, they lost two of their next three in overtime. They haven’t lost by more than six points since January.
I’m setting the table with this information so you see why it wasn’t a giant surprise when Rider leapt out to a healthy lead over fourth-place Monmouth on Saturday, with the emotions of Senior Day and a jam-packed “Broncs Zoo” keeping Alumni Gymnasium raucous. Mervin James scored 23 points on 10-for-12 shooting and Rider never trailed on its way to a 74-65 win.
“I just know if we do what we’re supposed to do and make sure that we get our rest and guys get prepared the right way, which they will, we have just as good of an opportunity as anybody else,” Baggett said. “You can throw out the numbers when it comes to the MAAC Tournament. You saw today, there were more upsets again today... That’s what makes the MAAC a great tournament, because anybody’s able to win. Last year I watched Fairfield in the championship against Iona. I forget what seed they were, but they weren’t that high of a seed. I’ve been in this league 16 years. I’ve seen it all.”
Baggett is right, especially given how packed MAAC is. Iona still reigns at the top, but no team fared worse than 7-13 in the 20-game conference slate. No other league in the country can claim that sort of parity this season. The Broncs ended up in a three-way tie at 8-12 and received the No. 9 seed out of 11.
(Last year was a special circumstance because teams played different numbers of games due to COVID. Nonetheless, it bears mentioning that Iona won the 2021 tournament as the No. 9.)
Dimencio Vaughn celebrated his Senior Day with a win before waxing poetic when I asked him why he believed in this particular group.
“We’re sponges and also gladiators,” said Vaughn, whom I was told has a way with words. “They look at our sizes. We’re little compared to certain teams. But we’re always gonna put up a fight. We’re not gonna back down, we’re not scared.”
I pressed for details. On being sponges: “Different things have happened this season, so everyone has soaked everything in and understood it now. Now we got to put it to the table.”
And being gladiators: “Every time we go out, we’re fighting. It’s always a war out on the court.”
The belief that this month – this particular week – inspires in teams big and small is unmatched. It’s present not only in one-bid leagues, where the conference tournament is the only path to March Madness, but also on campuses like Rutgers’.
The Scarlet Knights got out to a 15-point lead in the second half Sunday, then made things interesting when their shooting went cold in the final five-plus minutes. Penn State pushed it to a one-point game and had a chance to win at the buzzer, but instead Rutgers survived, 59-58.
Afterward, Ron Harper Jr., Geo Baker, Caleb McConnell, Ralph Agee and Luke Nathan were asked to address the crowd – which they only found out they’d be doing after the game.
“If we woulda lost, we’re not doing that,” Harper cracked.
But it was a moment of gratitude all around – the players thankful for their fans’ undying support, the fans grateful that this particular class helped raise Rutgers’ level in the Big Ten. Penn State first-year coach Micah Shrewsberry would later say that he admired what Steve Pikiell had built already and hoped to model his own program in a similar vain.
Pikiell and his players were modest upon learning of that praise. “When we first came here,” Baker said, “I don’t think anyone was trying to play like Rutgers.”
What no one yet knew at that point in the afternoon was how perfectly the chips would fall – both Ohio State and Iowa wound up losing their regular-season finales, clearing the way for Rutgers, yes, seriously, Rutgers to earn the No. 4 seed and final double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Imagine someone telling you that would happen after the Scarlet Knights lost to Lafayette in November. You’d think, “My God, what happened to the Big Ten?”
Instead, Pikiell and his players never stopped believing that they had what it took to win games in their league. Twelve Big Ten wins in one season is a program record. And though they’re still seen as a bubble team – among the last four in, a nerve-wracking place to be – the Scarlet Knights can prove themselves more with a win or two in Indy. They’d only need three to take the auto bid.
Harper was asked if he thought Rutgers had a tournament resume right now.
“I wish I could tell you yes or no but I don’t know. It’s up to the committee,” he said. “But I think this is a great team, I think we deserve to play on that platform, go out there and play on the biggest stage in college basketball, me and my guys. I wouldn’t rather have it any other way. But we’re going to the Big Ten Tournament. We’ve got some business to take care of down there. Once that’s all said and done we’ll worry about the next step.”
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We’ve made it to conference tournament week! We’re less than seven days away from the Selection Show, and we can already name Murray State, Loyola Chicago and Longwood as members of the field of 68 thanks to their auto-bid-bestowing conference titles.
We can also bid farewell to one more New Jersey team: NJIT, which had the misfortune of facing behemoth Vermont in the America East 1-8 game, losing 98-59 Sunday. The Highlanders rank No. 343 in KenPom (just three better than Fairleigh Dickinson) and their four most recent losses came by an average of 26.75 points. Better luck next year.
Let’s clean the glass and cover the six Jersey teams still standing via some quick and dirty previews of the Big Ten, Big East, Ivy and MAAC tournaments:
Big Ten
What a wacky group in the top four. Had Wisconsin not lost to Nebraska on Sunday, I’d feel more comfortable power-ranking the Badgers No. 1 in this league. Even still, they were the Providence of the Big Ten: So many close wins. It’s a skill to win the close ones, but doesn’t it also say you weren’t head-and-shoulders better than much of your competition?
Illinois still can be a Final Four-caliber team when it’s firing on all cylinders, but Purdue did beat the Illini twice. Then again, Purdue’s defense is a liability.
The more I look at it, the more I’m convinced any of the top eight seeds in this league has what it takes to win – yes, even down to Michigan, which is about to get Juwan Howard back. You can poke holes in any of those same eight teams; a few of them undoubtedly will lose their first game in Indy. For my pick, I’ll default to the No. 1 seed with the monster known as Kofi Cockburn at the center of it all.
My prediction: Illinois
Sleeper pick: Iowa
Big East
Let’s spare a moment on Seton Hall. It’s one of the hottest teams in the Big East, winning eight of its last 10 games and taking down a hot Creighton team on the road Saturday. But the damage was done as soon as Greg Elliott elbowed Bryce Aiken in the nose. Not only did Aiken suffer a season-ending concussion, but Pirates fans will recall that Aiken was the one controversially called for the foul, allowing Marquette to win the game and end up sweeping the season series. That’s why the Golden Eagles won the tiebreaker for the No. 5 seed and Seton Hall has to play one extra game. Good work, James Breeding!
But looking at what’s in front of us and not what’s behind us, it’s hard to argue against Villanova here. What a juicy rematch it would be in the semifinals if the Wildcats get another crack at UConn. There’s no doubt in my mind they can beat Providence a third time if it comes to that in the final. For the record, I really, really like the Friars, but Villanova wins the tale of the tape from coaching to scoring to veterans on the floor.
My prediction: Villanova
Sleeper pick: Creighton
Ivy
This has been the best season of Princeton basketball since... when? The 1990s? Bill Bradley? Not only did the women’s team stomp through the league with ease, the men also won the outright title and earned the No. 1 seed. Now, I’m not expecting their semifinal game against Cornell to be a cakewalk. I watched the Big Red nearly take the Tigers down at Jadwin, and they finished the job in the rematch in Ithaca. But in all reality, this really comes down to Princeton and Yale in the final Sunday afternoon.
My prediction: Princeton
Sleeper pick: Yale
MAAC
Here’s where our three New Jersey programs stand. Saint Peter’s finished off a terrific conference season with a 57-41 win over Fairfield, its fourth straight, to lock up the No. 2 seed. At the very least, expect to see the Peacocks in the semifinals in Atlantic City. Monmouth could meet Iona in the semis on the other side of the bracket, and the Gaels are a bit more vulnerable lately than we were used to – if the Hawks get their third crack at them, is that the charm?
As the ninth seed, Rider will face Manhattan Tuesday afternoon, with the winner sent off to face Iona.
My prediction: Iona
Sleeper pick: Monmouth