New Jersey bracketology, Part III: Seeding scenarios for every team

From where the men’s teams stand in their conference brackets to the women’s teams vying for an NCAA bid, let’s break it all down one last time.

Looking back at last year, I can’t believe I managed to write five “New Jersey bracketology” posts.

It was a different time.

As you’ll see below, while it’s a different story on the women’s side, we’re staring down the possibility — no, the likelihood — that zero of the eight men’s D1 programs in this state make the NCAA Tournament, which would be the first time that has happened since 2015.

Between Seton Hall’s forgettable season and Rutgers’ major disappointment, there was little need for me to revisit the topic of bracketology many times this winter. Today, I’ll set the table for the final stretch of the season and grade out the likelihood each team makes the NCAA Tournament on a 0-10 confidence scale.

If I give a team a 1/10, that doesn’t translate to 10% odds that a team will make it. I’m being far more subjective than that, based on what I’ve seen this season combined with the mathematical realities of each conference’s brackets, since we’re no longer dealing with any at-large contenders.

Enough intro. Let’s get started:

Rutgers

I’ll always recommend Matt Hackman on Twitter for probabilities in the leagues he monitors, including each of the five power conferences. And as it stood Monday morning, Rutgers held a 97% chance to make the Big Ten tournament.

How might the Scarlet Knights miss it at this point? We can’t run through every scenario, but here’s one way: In addition to losing both their remaining games (at Purdue, vs. Minnesota), landing at 7-13, they get passed by Nebraska, Northwestern and USC and tie for 15th with Iowa, which owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Hackman’s simulations show Rutgers’ likeliest landing spot is the No. 11 seed and it can’t go higher than No. 10. The No. 10 would get to face the 15th and final team in the tournament, someone like USC or Minnesota, and then take on the No. 7 seed, currently projected to be… Illinois. Hmmm. At No. 11, the Scarlet Knights would start out against No. 14 and then meet No. 6 with a win. That could be UCLA, another team they beat this year, albeit in the middle of a midseason swoon caused by the Bruins’ long travels and angry coach.

The 10/11 range is not a bad spot at all for a team like Rutgers as it’s finally fully healthy and getting the most out of its freshmen. We’ve seen stranger conference tournament runs as recently as last year (North Carolina State), so I refuse to fully ignore the faint, faint possibility of a run here.

Likelihood of making NCAA Tournament: 0.25 / 10

Seton Hall

All that’s really left for the Pirates is to try to avoid the indignity of a last-place finish in the league. Hackman’s weighted Big East scenarios have DePaul and Seton Hall at 50/50 there. While the Pirates face Creighton at home and UConn on the road to conclude the regular season, DePaul seems to have it slightly easier (at Providence, vs. Georgetown).