The numbers behind Saint Peter’s promising start

The Peacocks, already 2-0 in the MAAC, could use their defense-and-rebounding identity to exceed preseason expectations.

Saint Peter’s players celebrate during a 66-60 win over UMBC on Dec. 12, 2023. (Photo via Saint Peter’s Athletics on Twitter/X)

Saint Peter’s was voted 10th of 11 teams in the MAAC preseason coaches’ poll. Two months into the season, KenPom.com’s projected conference record for the Peacocks is up to 12-8, featuring a 51% chance to beat Iona at home this Friday.

Well now! This feels… unexpected.

I only cite the preseason poll as a baseline of where expectations once stood, but everyone knows these are educated guesses made by coaches or media who haven’t seen everyone’s new players up close. That can be tossed out the window now. The Peacocks hold an enviable position tied with Marist atop the MAAC standings, having knocked out the two-game Buffalo road swing in early December with a pair of wins.

Normally a below-average offense, the Peacocks showed potential in the league opener at Niagara by shooting 56.3 percent in a 72-67 victory. Saint Peter’s went on to beat Canisius 54-52 two days later.

The Peacocks are such an interesting case study to me because you can ding them for the red flags on offense, or you can focus on the reasons why they’re winning games. This team still fouls a lot, still gives up a lot of turnovers and still has trouble making 2-pointers overall; they rank 336th in effective field goal percentage and 337th in turnover percentage.

But if you’re worried about scoring, just bear in mind that Saint Peter’s never averaged more than 67 points per game in the Shaheen Holloway era and ranked 231st in adjusted offensive efficiency the year of the Elite Eight run. There are more ways than one to win a game.

Here’s what’s been fueling Saint Peter’s promising start. Hat tip to KenPom.com for so much of the data we’re about to inspect.

1. They rank super-highly in offensive rebound percentage

I just wrote about Rutgers’ rebounding on Sunday and mentioned that Saint Peter’s had a plus-13 margin on the glass against the Scarlet Knights. Turns out that was a strength-on-weakness matchup. The Peacocks crash the boards enough to grab 37.5 percent of their available offensive rebounds – three out of every eight. That ranks 15th in Division I and first in the MAAC. Michael Houge leads the charge here with 2.4 offensive boards per game (more on him in a minute).