Offseason preview: Rutgers’ rebuild means filling roles around dynamic freshmen
Steve Pikiell and the Scarlet Knights face the vitally important task of optimizing the 2024-25 roster.
No reason to belabor the point: Whether you use KenPom adjusted efficiency or simply field-goal percentage as your measuring stick, Rutgers had the worst offense of any power-conference outfit in 2023-24. Not having the likes of Ron Harper Jr., Geo Baker or even a Cam Spencer or Paul Mulcahy to make shots caught up to the Scarlet Knights.
Yet excitement for basketball in Piscataway has never been higher. That may seem a touch ironic, but it’s true. Since sometime in January, everything has been about next season.
The incoming freshman class is the reason why. High school star Dylan Harper, younger brother of Ron, committed to Rutgers in December to try and accomplish something that’s never been done in his home state.
The pressure would be immense if it were on one super-freshman’s shoulders. But Harper will team up with Ace Bailey, a fellow five-star and McDonald’s All-American from Georgia. They come with built-in chemistry, to boot, having befriended one another at USA Basketball U19 training camp before hooping together at various camps and summer tournaments.
Harper was just named MaxPreps’ national high school player of the year, yet Bailey at times has outshone Harper at high school tournaments they’ve played in New Jersey. Add big man Lathan Sommervile and forwards Dylan Grant and Bryce Dortch – all top-200 national recruits, three-stars or four-stars depending on your recruiting service of choice – and Rutgers has its best class in history.
But because Harper and Bailey are essentially assured to be one-and-dones at the college level, there’s one season for RU to get this right. Steve Pikiell and the Scarlet Knights head into this offseason faced with the vitally important task of optimizing the roster with veteran role players around the freshmen.
Aundre Hyatt, Noah Fernandes and Austin Williams exhausted their eligibility, and Palmquist is pursuing a pro career overseas. And the transfer portal? In alphabetical order: Antonio Chol, Gavin Griffiths, Mawot Mag, Clifford Omoruyi, Derek Simpson, Antwone Woolfolk. (Two have already found new homes. No time to wait around in this day and age of the sport.)
As a result, nobody who played for Rutgers just two years ago will be on the roster in 2024-25.
Rutgers has responded by landing commitments from two transfers so far – more on them below – so here’s how the roster currently breaks down by position, with three scholarship spots available:
Guards: Tyson Acuff, Jamichael Davis, Dylan Harper^, Jeremiah Williams
Forwards/wings: Ace Bailey^, Bryce Dortch^, Dylan Grant^, Zach Martini
Bigs: Emmanuel Ogbole, Lathan Sommerville^
^Incoming freshman
I dove into Acuff’s tape (and drew on plenty of time watching Martini in seasons past) to dissect their fit on this roster.
Tyson Acuff
When your offense had the kind of season Rutgers’ just did, you need dudes who can get buckets at any and every level. Adding one of the top 10 scorers in all of Division I surely won’t hurt.
Acuff averaged 21.7 points per game this season for Eastern Michigan, finishing tied for seventh in the country. Twelve points was considered a bad night for him. He poured in 29+ points seven times and never fewer than 11; he dropped 24 on Michigan without making a three and scored 20 on Florida Atlantic.
What interests me is where Acuff scores. His 3-point percentage dipped to 29.2% on 6.2 attempts per game in 2023-24, but he has shot 51.4% from inside the arc over the span of his career, which featured two seasons at Duquesne and two at EMU. I know Rutgers fans want to see some improvement from beyond the arc, especially as long-range marksman Griffiths leaves the program. But fans should also want to see some layups go down too, lest they forget how painful that Jan. 31 loss to Penn State was to watch.
Acuff converts at the rim as well as both elbows. He’s shown himself to be capable off the bounce, on ball screens and in isolation. And with a 6-foot-4 frame, he should be able to make the transition to the Big Ten as a secondary scorer. Harper and Bailey are going to be the focal points of opponents’ scouting reports, so a guard like Acuff who can drive or score in the mid-range will give defenses something else to think about and keep them from suffocating the freshmen.
Zach Martini
Now, speaking of threes! I think there may be some folks who read my newsletter only for Rutgers content and skip over my coverage of mid-major programs, so they won’t be familiar with Martini. Then again, there was a full and complete groundswell of support online for Rutgers pursuing Martini, so I shouldn’t underestimate the fan base.
Martini went from a rotation player for Princeton’s 2023 NCAA Tournament team to the de facto starting five in 2023-24. At 6-foot-7, he is not going to play the five for Rutgers, except perhaps in some situational small-ball lineups, and when he entered the Tigers’ starting five after Tosan Evbuomwan graduated, Princeton adapted by changing to a five-out offense.
Martini made multiple threes in a game 16 times last year; 78% of his career field-goal attempts have been threes, and that’s what he’ll bring to the Rutgers offense, though he also has the muscle to finish at the rim. He’ll replace the spot-up abilities of Griffiths while adding size, toughness and experience on the wing.
Rutgers fans are going to love Martini, because Martini clearly loves Rutgers, having grown up in Somerset County rooting for Scarlet Knights football. After Princeton beat Rutgers in last season’s opener in Trenton, Martini said he “wanted this game like nothing else more in my life.” And the leadership he should provide a young team with NBA prospects getting their first taste of college life will be invaluable.
What’s next
We learned this week that Jordan Derkack of Merrimack, the Northeast Conference Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year from Colonia, N.J., is taking visits to both Rutgers and Seton Hall soon. Derkack’s numbers show he can score in the lane, rebound, assist, defend… basically, do everything except make a three, where he’s hit 26.3% over two college seasons.
To be honest, on paper he sounds like a better fit at Seton Hall, where the Pirates’ offense can thrive without relying on the long ball. A Rutgers backcourt with both Acuff and Derkack feels redundant to me. You want one of your veteran guards to be at least somewhat of a 3-point threat.
No doubt Rutgers should try to add a fifth guard for some depth, whether Derkack or another option. But the biggest hole remaining is at the starting five. Rutgers’ choices right now are Ogbole, who looks like a fine player with an ideal build but only played 81 minutes last season after recovering from an injury, and Sommerville, a freshman who may have the right stuff but is probably not ready for 30 minutes a night in the Big Ten.
Because Omoruyi fit a particular profile on defense, I keep seeing people online say that Rutgers must find a rim protector in the transfer portal to replace him. But I’d encourage RU fans to think bigger than that. No, you can’t be a turnstile on defense and play for Pikiell. But scroll up and read the first paragraph of this newsletter again. Remember how many layups and bunnies were off the mark all year. I’d prioritize touch around the rim if I were scouting the position for Rutgers, even if it means sacrificing a few blocked shots.
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Thanks for stopping by on this Friday! Let’s clean the glass with other news and observations from the week, and let’s be quick about it so I can get back to watching the Masters.
Dre Davis entered the transfer portal. Massive, massive blow for Seton Hall if he does end up leaving. We’re still waiting on Kadary Richmond and Dylan Addae-Wusu to announce whether they’re using a fifth year of eligibility, and whether they do so in South Orange or hit the portal.
In a nod to the rising expectations in Piscataway thanks to Harper and Bailey, Rutgers appeared in every major media outlet’s “Way Too Early Preseason Top 25” for 2024-25 published this week. In descending order of ranking, RU checked in at No. 16 on The Athletic’s and Yahoo’s lists, No. 21 on ESPN, No. 22 on CBS, No. 23 on Sports Illustrated, No. 24 on Fox and Sporting News and No. 25 on USA Today. (For what it’s worth, Seton Hall also appeared in two of these – ranked 15th by Yahoo, 25th by CBS – though these surely were filed before Davis entered the portal.)
Monmouth women’s basketball coach Ginny Boggess was hired for the same job at Toledo. Monmouth was Boggess’ first head-coaching job and she turned the program around in three short years, with the Hawks winning the CAA tournament and making NCAAs in 2023, then following it up with a 22-win season and a WNIT appearance this season. “I will forever be indebted to Monmouth for believing in a first-time head coach with big dreams,” Boggess wrote on Twitter. “My deepest gratitude to our players for trusting the process, to the coaching staff for your loyalty and excellence, and to the administration for your unwavering support.”
This made me realize that on the men’s side of things, after a few years of shuffling, all eight programs in New Jersey have their head coaches coming back. Four of the eight have hired their current coach in the time since I launched this newsletter in late 2021: Shaheen Holloway at Seton Hall, Bashir Mason at Saint Peter’s, Jack Castleberry at FDU and Grant Billmeier at NJIT.