One key for Rutgers-Purdue and other remaining Quadrant 1 games
New Jersey’s teams have five games left against Quad 1 opponents – three for Rutgers, two for Seton Hall, all five on the road.
Time is running out for Rutgers and Seton Hall to finalize their postseason resumes.
For the Pirates, there’s room for them in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team if they don’t fall on their faces down the stretch. Some, but not all, bracketologists at major outlets have Seton Hall barely in the field after it beat St. John’s over the weekend.
For the Scarlet Knights, the NIT is far more likely than the big dance, but if they win some of their toughest games down the stretch, their NET number could rocket. The door is still ever-so-slightly ajar.
And that brings us to the remaining schedule. The NCAA Tournament selection committee wants to see you perform against the best of the best. New Jersey’s teams have five games left against Quadrant 1 opponents – three for Rutgers, two for Hall, all five on the road.
With Rutgers’ showdown against No. 3 Purdue hours away, this morning is a perfect opportunity for us to preview the rest of the regular season, discussing one key to each of these five Q1 games.
(Note: Villanova is No. 33 in the NET as of this writing; if the Wildcats finish the season top-30, that makes Seton Hall’s March 6 home game against them another Quad 1 opportunity. Remember, Quad 1 games are games a team plays against the top 30 NET teams at home, the top 50 on a neutral floor and the top 75 away.)
Let’s dive in, going in chronological order:
Rutgers at Purdue, Thursday, Feb. 22 (7 p.m. ET, FS1)
Key: Win at the 3-point line
The Scarlet Knights are catching the Boilermakers coming off their third loss of the season, 73-69 to an Ohio State team that had just fired its coach. For at least the third year running, Purdue is a unique mix of scary and inherently vulnerable, a Goliath that stubs his own toe a bit too often (though almost never at Mackey Arena).
Rutgers rallied from a poor start to put Purdue on the ropes when they played Jan. 28 in Piscataway, but while the Boilers made just 5 of 19 3-point tries, Rutgers made a mere 4 of 16. The trajectory of RU’s season might be different had a few more of those threes dropped that afternoon.
Look at Purdue’s three losses: Northwestern made 10 triples to Purdue’s five on Dec. 1; Nebraska fired in 14 of 23 on Jan. 9 to counteract Purdue’s 13 makes; and while Ohio State only made seven 3-pointers, it held Purdue to a season-low-tying three. You sort of have to let Zach Edey get his when you face Purdue and see if your guards can outplay theirs.
Rutgers remains extremely fickle from the arc. If it can bottle whatever Noah Fernandes had going on Feb. 10 when he shot 5-for-5 against Wisconsin, this could be a closer game than we’d expect.
Seton Hall at Creighton, Wednesday, Feb. 28 (9 p.m. ET, FS1)
Key: Clamp down on D
No pressure, Pirates: Creighton is playing its best basketball of the season. Felling No. 1 UConn by 19 the other day is all the proof we need that this team has brushed off the random early-season losses to Colorado State and UNLV. This rematch with Seton Hall after January’s three-overtime instant classic – with third place in the Big East possibly on the line – will be huge.
Creighton has lost the occasional tit-for-tat scoring race this year, 99-98 to Butler and 91-87 to Providence in overtime. Butler and Providence shot 13-of-22 and 11-of-26 from three, respectively, so that isn’t Seton Hall’s best path to victory.
This might not be any easier, though: Can you get one of college basketball’s most efficient offenses off its rhythm? Creighton, which is shooting 49.1 percent as a team this year, is 2-5 when finishing less than 46 percent from the field. One of those two wins was the Seton Hall 3OT game, when the Pirates held their own inside against Ryan Kalkbrenner and kept Creighton to 42.7% over 55 minutes of basketball. It can be done, though it’s a much bigger ask in Omaha.
Seton Hall at UConn, Sunday, March 3 (12 p.m. ET, CBS)
Key: Limit Donovan Clingan’s impact
Immediate disclaimer: UConn is still the best team in the country, all-around, pound for pound. The defending national champions are experienced, with five terrific starters who score in double figures and almost no flaws to speak of.
That said, the Huskies become a much less untouchable team when Donovan Clingan leaves the court or is otherwise neutralized. In UConn’s three losses this season:
1. Kansas’ Hunter Dickinson wins the battle of 7-foot-2 centers, posting 15 points, nine boards and four blocks while holding Clingan to eight points on 3-of-8 shooting. The Jayhawks win 69-65 despite Tristen Newton going off for 31 points against them.
2. After shooting 7-for-12 to start, Clingan leaves the Big East opener against Seton Hall with a foot injury, having played just 14 minutes. The Hall frontcourt contains backup Samson Johnson, Kadary Richmond shows off and the Pirates pull away.
3. Clingan picks up his second foul five minutes into the Creighton game. The Bluejays make three after three while UConn is worried about a mismatch against Kalkbrenner; by time Clingan returns, the momentum is 100% Creighton’s way and it’s basically over. Let UConn beat writer David Borges drive it home:
And there is a clear blueprint now to beat UConn. Get Clingan in foul trouble, it changes everything. Turn UConn into a one-man show offensively. Easier said than done. There aren't going to be too many games where Alex Karaban, Cam Spencer and Stephon Castle combine to shoot 8-for-24 overall and 1-for-8 from 3.
Rutgers at Nebraska, Sunday, March 3 (6:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
Key: Rebound and shoot (and keep shooting)
The Scarlet Knights’ season-long journey to become better rebounders culminates in this final exam. Rienk Mast and Juwan Gary are fine players, but Nebraska doesn’t have much presence on the glass besides them. This is one of those few Big Ten teams where Cliff Omoruyi and co. have the clear frontcourt advantage.
When Rutgers beat Nebraska in overtime on Jan. 17, the Scarlet Knights grabbed 56 rebounds, their highest total ever in a Big Ten game. They had an indomitable 25 offensive rebounds that night and 31 on the defensive end. To extrapolate further, in the Cornhuskers’ eight losses, they have not won the rebounding battle once.
As the line goes, there are that many offensive rebounds available because Rutgers can’t shoot. That’s fine. It’s still no time to be cowardly and pass up shots. Most teams that beat Nebraska take more shots from beyond the arc than the Huskers. The only exception was the Scarlet Knights, who still kept up with Nebraska’s 13-of-35 rate by making 11 of 29 tries.
This game is in Lincoln, where Nebraska is 16-1. Don’t let Keisei Tominaga scare you or dictate the game with a couple of his hero balls that fire up the crowd. If you miss a three the first time, the rebound should be yours.
Rutgers at Wisconsin, Thursday, March 7 (7 p.m. ET, FS1)
Key: Score 72 or more
Again, crack all the jokes you want about Rutgers’ generally putrid offense this season. Asking the Scarlet Knights to score 72 points would have been a fool’s errand most of the season. But the players and fans alike have to believe a repeat performance is possible after the 78-56 beatdown at the RAC two weeks ago.
Wisconsin, like Purdue and apparently Illinois these days, is showing its vulnerabilities. While the Badgers haven’t lost a game where they held their opponent to 70 points or fewer, they’re 4-9 once the opponent reaches 72 and 1-6 if the other team happens to hit 78. Wisconsin has scored above its 74.3 ppg average just once this month (an 88-86 OT loss to Iowa), while the defense the Badgers were supposedly predicated on has been getting exploited.
As with all five games here, this is a road contest, and therefore a much taller task than beating Wisconsin in the comforts of home. But it’s also probably the most winnable game on this list – yes, more than Nebraska, which can play out of their minds at home. Fernandes probably doesn’t go 5-for-5 from the arc a second time, but if Rutgers feels like it’s got something to play for on March 7 – pride, a postseason bid, whatever – there’s a way for it to win this game.
………
Hi there, hello. Today’s newsletter went pretty long, so let’s skip Cleaning the Glass and instead discuss the schedule for the next few weeks.
I’m sticking with my Sunday-Tuesday-Thursday publication schedule until the final days of the regular season. At that point, I plan to fit in an extra edition on Friday, March 8 and I probably won’t publish on the morning of Sunday, March 10, instead holding off for Monday morning for an all-inclusive conference tournament week primer. So here’s what you can expect:
Sunday, Feb. 25: Focus on Butler-Seton Hall game
Tuesday, Feb. 27: Focus on Rutgers
Thursday, Feb. 29: Column off Seton Hall-Creighton game
Sunday, March 3: Focus on Princeton
Tuesday, March 5: New Jersey bracketology, Part V
Thursday, March 7: Focus on Villanova-Seton Hall game
Friday, March 8: Focus on Saint Peter’s-Rider game