Preseason crystal ball: Evaluating postseason hopes for the Pirates, Scarlet Knights and Tigers

To find the last time three New Jersey men’s basketball programs made the NCAA Tournament in the same year, you have to look back to 2004.

To find the last time three New Jersey men’s basketball programs made the NCAA Tournament in the same year, you have to look back to 2004, when Seton Hall grabbed a #8 seed, Princeton won the Ivy League under Coach John Thompson III and Monmouth won the Northeast Conference.

What a year it was for NJ hoops – one of the tournament’s four regional sites was East Rutherford. Really! Not some cop-out like “New York metropolitan area,” though maybe New York wouldn’t have wished to lay claim to the unpopular, now-dormant Izod Center, then known as Continental Airlines Arena.

This has been on my mind since I conceived of the idea for Guarden State. I don’t want to proclaim that we might be on the precipice of some New Jersey college hoops renaissance, but I had to wonder about the last time we saw such broad success around the state in terms of tournament bids. Could 2022 bring the state three tournament-quality teams again?

There are so many wrong ways to do a preseason predictions feature, and everything below comes with the caveats that injuries are unpredictable and I have yet to see these teams practice in person. But all that said, I broke down Seton Hall, Rutgers and Princeton as they appear on paper a few weeks out from the season and shared my best estimations, including best-case and worst-case scenarios.

To survey some outside perspectives, I’ve also listed where the Lindy’s College Basketball Magazine ranked each team over the offseason and where Ken Pomeroy’s preseason projections peg each team.

Seton Hall

Preseason poll: Fifth in Big East

Lindy’s ranking: Seventh in Big East

KenPom preseason ranking: No. 50 in NCAA (fourth in Big East)

One-sentence summary: The Pirates saw their NCAA Tournament bid streak stop at four and Sandro Mamukelashvili jumped to the NBA soon after, leaving behind a roster full of talented pieces and questions about how they’ll gel.

If all goes right... Preseason All-Big East first-teamer Jared Rhoden will step up as this show’s new leading man. Coach Kevin Willard will deploy his new additions, like wing Kadary Richmond (Syracuse transfer) and forward Alexis Yetna (South Florida) around Rhoden in a variety of ways. 7-foot-2 Ike Obiagu keeps pretty much every Big East foe out of the paint and blocks a thousand shots. With no clear tournament locks behind Villanova and UConn in this league, Hall makes some noise and returns to a March Madness bracket near you.

If all goes wrong... Without a Sandro or a Myles Powell as the leading scorer, this iteration of Seton Hall never finds its footing. A tough non-conference schedule out the gate – featuring No. 6 Michigan, No. 17 Ohio State and No. 5 Texas – gets in the way of Hall establishing the lineup chemistry it wants in the early going. Bryce Aiken never gets back to 100% health and doesn’t add much to the rotation, and the Pirates fail to improve on their 32.1% 3-point rate from last season. Before long, they find themselves in the 8-9 game of the Big East Tournament with a core of seniors and grad students about to depart.

Breakout candidate: North Brunswick native Jamir Harris ranked third in the Patriot League in scoring (20.5 ppg) and fifth in assists (3.5 apg) last year at American on his way to a first-team all-conference selection. Of Hall’s several incoming transfers, Harris may be the most vital. The Pirates have plenty of capable wings and need a reliable point man in the backcourt to tie the offense together.

Final call: Seton Hall finishes top-five in the conference and returns to the NCAA Tournament field as a lower seed.

Rutgers

Preseason polls: Eighth in Big Ten; received 11 votes in AP Top 25 poll, which would translate to 35th in the country

Lindy’s ranking: Ninth in Big Ten

KenPom preseason ranking: No. 67 in NCAA (11th in Big Ten)

One-sentence summary: Coming off the program’s first NCAA Tournament win since 1983, the Scarlet Knights lost some key contributors but brought back Geo Baker and Ron Harper Jr. to lead them into a strenuous Big Ten schedule.

If all goes right... The Scarlet Knights catch Big Ten teams looking past them on the schedule because the league is a gauntlet and, fair or not, sports at Rutgers still carry a certain stigma. One of the best defenses in the Big Ten puts the screws on unsuspecting backcourts, and Caleb McConnell and Cliff Omoruyi pick up where departed transfers Jacob Young and Myles Johnson left off. Baker and Harper guide a balanced offense as Rutgers claims a second straight NCAA Tournament bid for the first time since the Ford administration.

If all goes wrong... Omoruyi just isn’t enough on the interior to handle a conference stacked with imposing big men like Kofi Cockburn of Illinois, Hunter Dickinson of Michigan, a pair of giants at Purdue and, well, the list goes on. The Scarlet Knights’ strength of schedule won’t be lacking, with nine Big Ten games against teams entering the season in the Top 25, but that doesn’t help too much if they can’t pull out a single win. The magic of last year is lost and Rutgers stumbles back from whence it came: an also-ran of the Big Ten that struggles with consistency and is too often overmatched.

Breakout candidate: Sophomore combo forward Aundre Hyatt transferred from LSU after having the game of his life in the NCAA Tournament – career highs of 13 points, 10 rebounds (seven offensive!) and four blocks all in one game against a very good St. Bonaventure side. The Knights needed to add a promising forward like Hyatt to help man the four so Harper doesn’t have to stray from his natural spot at the three.

Final call: I think we’re looking at a bubble team. Rutgers will have no shortage of opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins in the Big Ten but will need to work hard to match or enhance last year’s 5-10 record in those games, making for a sweaty Selection Sunday.

Princeton

Preseason poll: Third in Ivy League (two first-place votes)

Lindy’s ranking: Third in Ivy League

KenPom preseason ranking: No. 164 in NCAA (first in Ivy, one spot ahead of Yale)

One-sentence summary: The Ivy League lost a season due to the COVID-19 pandemic, so everyone is restarting on roughly equal footing – and the Tigers will look to their league-best three returning starters and high-percentage shooting from 2019-20 to lift them above the pack.

If all goes right... Former four-star recruit Jaelin Llewellyn takes on the mantle as the most dangerous scorer in the league. He gets help around the perimeter from Drew Friberg and Ethan Wright, who knock down threes at the rate they did when we last saw them on the floor. Princeton handles business against the bottom half of the league and veteran coach Mitch Henderson prepares the Tigers well for the Ivy League Tournament, where they deal a blow to Yale or Harvard to clinch just their second league title in 10 years.

If all goes wrong... You’ve heard of “Live by the three, die by the three,” right? Llewellyn can score in several ways, but if the team as a whole gets cold from long range, it could quickly turn into costly L’s given Princeton’s unproven defense. The Tigers ranked last in the Ivy in 2019-20 in field goal percent defense (46.4%) and second-worst in 3-point defense (34.4%), and have lost rim protector Richmond Aririguzoh. The league is deeper than you might expect, and missing the conference tourney (only the top four qualify) is not an impossible outcome.

Breakout candidate: To replace Aririguzoh, how about 6-foot-10 first-year Mason Hooks? The three-star recruit from Los Angeles can slide in next to forward Tosan Evbuomwan and fill a need defensively and on the boards. It remains to be seen how much run he’ll get as a freshman.

Final call: It all comes down to a couple of critical head-to-heads with fellow contenders Harvard and Yale – first in the regular season, then likely in the Ivy League Tournament. Princeton has what it needs to stay in the running for the Ivy’s auto bid till the bloody end.

Cleaning the glass with other notes and observations:

• Though Rick Pitino’s Iona Gaels were the unanimous favorite in the preseason poll, the MAAC has a pair of New Jersey contenders in Monmouth and Saint Peter’s. Monmouth improved its backcourt with Seton Hall grad transfer Shavar Reynolds Jr. Saint Peter’s senior and defensive nightmare KC Ndefo led the nation in blocked shots last season and was named MAAC Preseason Player of the Year. The Peacocks were ranked second in the poll, the Hawks were fourth and Rider was a respectable fifth.
  

• The Preseason All-Big Ten team was revealed this week, with Rutgers’ Harper making the cut. He’s also on the Julius Erving Award watch list for small forward of the year after being a finalist for the same award last season. He’s gotten the right people’s attention; let’s see what a strong senior year could do for his NBA draft potential.
  

• Shoutout to the Princeton women’s team for earning top billing in the Ivy League preseason poll. This program has produced WNBA talent and won three straight Ivy titles before the pandemic canceled last season. I’m going to keep an eye on them and hope to get out to a home game this winter.
  

• I’ll be back Monday with a more complete season preview of one program. Join me then.