The three matchups that will decide Rutgers vs. Seton Hall

Are we in for another 45-43 scoreline when Seton Hall hosts Rutgers this Saturday? Let's preview the key areas and matchups that will define this game.

Al-Amir Dawes (foreground, right) looks at the Garden State Hardwood Classic trophy as his Seton Hall teammates celebrate defeating Rutgers on Dec. 11, 2022. (Photo by Lokesh Sutherland / courtesy of Seton Hall athletics)

I promise, New Jersey basketball teams are allowed to score.

It’s a half-apology I almost felt I had to make after Seton Hall defeated Rutgers 45-43 in last year’s Garden State Hardwood Classic – except we shouldn’t feel required to apologize on behalf of two teams who’ve built their identities and reputations around strong defense. We all have preferences, and low-scoring basketball is perhaps an acquired taste. I know I’d rather watch a 60-50 slobberknocker than a 130-120 NBA game where the teams trade open threes all night.

Still, 45-43 was a bit extreme, even as Rutgers and Seton Hall went on to finish the season sixth and 20th in KenPom.com’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating. You do need some shots to fall, eventually. Case in point: There was no way 58 points would cut it for Rutgers last Saturday against Illinois.

So with the next installment of the Rutgers-Seton Hall rivalry on the horizon this Saturday in Newark, I want to inspect where the points might come from this year. KenPom has Rutgers and Seton Hall rated as close as can be — ranked Nos. 62 and 63 this morning and separated by 0.02 points in overall adjusted efficiency. This game really could be a toss-up, so this year’s preview requires a deeper dive.

Here are the three matchups that will determine the course of Saturday night’s rock fight:

1. Rutgers’ interior defense vs. Seton Hall’s driving

If you watch Seton Hall play, you already know the Pirates’ offense is not at all predicated on chucking up a bunch of threes. Al-Amir Dawes is the main outside threat, and while Dylan Addae-Wusu can take the three, he’s at his best when playing the “wrecking ball,” driving to the hoop. It also doesn’t help that Kadary Richmond, who went 16-for-36 from long range last season, has started this year 1-for-11.

As a result, 58.6% of Seton Hall’s points have come from inside the arc, one of the highest reliances on the 2-pointer among power-conference teams. The Pirates make 54.2% of their 2-point tries. So how are they going to fare against one of the best interior defenses in the country?