Welcome to March: What N.J. teams are facing as postseason approaches
Including a farewell to Fairleigh Dickinson.
This year, March technically began on Feb. 28, a sort of scheduling paradox akin to figuring out when Easter will fall each year or why daylight savings time works the way it does.
I say that March began Monday, outside the typical boundaries of March, because we had exactly one conference tournament game, the first to kick off a season of 32 tourneys that will determine 32 automatic bids to March Madness.
This game was hosted in New Jersey. And, as it so happens, the New Jersey team lost.
I hope I have not picked on Fairleigh Dickinson too much this season. It’s hard being a low-major team in a league with one or two teams way above the rest – in the Northeast Conference’s case, there are two titans, Bryant and Wagner. I watched FDU in the season opener against Seton Hall, and I hope to see the Knights again in the future. As I mentioned not long ago, they have some good young players – Anquan Hill, Sébastien Lamaute and Ibrahim Wattara each won NEC Rookie of the Week at least once.
But on Monday night in Teaneck, the Knights hosted the 8-9 game of the NEC Tournament – and they lost to Central Connecticut State, 67-66, after leading for most of the game. In essence, it means FDU is the first Division I men’s team to see its season end.
So I’m faced with a cold reality: Not only are we down from eight to seven New Jersey teams still going in men’s college hoops, but before long, we’ll be down to zero. This should be a fascinating month and I’m as excited as the next guy, but once Rutgers, Seton Hall and the rest of them bow out – whether that’s the round of 64 or the national title game – this newsletter might have to go into dormancy for a while. I could still continue writing irregularly timed editions over the offseason, particularly as it relates to recruiting news. I could expand to other sports. Time will tell what ends up being the best way forward for me.
Forget that for now. Think happy thoughts! As stated, seven Jersey programs are still going, so to preview the merry month of March, let’s take a look at where things stand in the final week of the regular season for each of these remaining contenders, what they’re playing for (i.e. seeding scenarios) and what I’d like to see from each of them.
Allow me to start with Rutgers (16-12, 10-8 Big Ten), whose status as a February riser and right-side-of-the-bubble darling has begun to crater with three straight losses. None of these were particularly bad losses – at Purdue, at Michigan by only nine, home to Wisconsin by five. They were competitive throughout that Wisconsin rematch Saturday, and it doesn’t hurt as much given Rutgers beat the Badgers at their place.
Every coach in this sport tells you his conference is the best conference, the most difficult to play game in and game out, but Steve Pikiell still made a fair point when he brought it up Saturday night.
“This league is so competitive, and I think this is the toughest stretch ever, since I’ve been here, of teams that are just terrific, ranked and all that stuff,” Pikiell said. “These games, every game in our league comes down to a possession or two.”
The Scarlet Knights’ four-game winning streak against Top 25 teams they plainly should not have been expected to beat will stick in the committee’s minds more than the scores of the past few games. The Athletic’s Bubble Watch feature today wrote that, “Rutgers has to win at Assembly Hall (Indiana) Wednesday — has to — to get this thing moving in the right direction again.” I’d push back on that a bit. If they drop a close one to the Hoosiers on the road but take care of business against Penn State in the regular-season finale and win at least one Big Ten Tournament game, I think that could be enough to squeak in. Of course, it’s safer to just beat Indiana, which would be the program’s sixth Quadrant 1 victory.
If you want an idea of how tenuous the Scarlet Knights’ position is now: ESPN’s latest bracketology update has Rutgers as the last team in. Not just part of the last four in. The last one.
On to Seton Hall (18-9, 9-8 Big East), whose NET of 32, strength of schedule ranking of 21 and five Quad 1 wins (not to mention zero bad losses) make it the only tournament lock in the state of New Jersey. I suppose if the Pirates lose their final two games of the regular season – including what would be an embarrassment to lowly Georgetown on Wednesday – then lose their Big East Tournament opener... that made me shiver. It would be inauspicious and hurt the Pirates’ seeding a lot, but most likely not knock them out of the field altogether.
If the Pirates win out and Marquette loses its last two games, Seton Hall would take over the fifth seed in the Big East Tournament, the final seed that comes with a first-round bye. I don’t think this is likely, as Marquette has DePaul and St. John’s left on its plate and will win one of those two. But finishing sixth would give the Pirates a first-round matchup against Georgetown, which is the same as having a first-round bye. No offense to the Hoyas, but at 0-17 in conference, this isn’t the same team that made a surprise run at MSG last year and stole an auto bid.
If I rooted for Seton Hall, I’d be happy with what I’ve been seeing lately. It hasn’t always been pretty, but the ability to grind out close wins is an invaluable trait. More specifically, Jamir Harris has been handling the ball more, and that’s been crucial. With no Bryce Aiken, it’s taken some of the pressure off Kadary Richmond and opened up some options on offense. Harris’ outside shot has seen better days, but he’s very capable of shooting the three ball, his pick and roll game is great, he can drive, dish it, etc. This team is past its “adjusting to life without Aiken” phase.
The Jersey team playing the best ball right now, relative to its competition, has to be Ivy League-leading Princeton (21-5, 11-2 Ivy). The Tigers are more than just the top team in a mid-major conference. If you’re just joining us, Princeton beat South Carolina on a neutral court last November, it took Minnesota to two overtimes on that same court and it beat Oregon State (admittedly a bad team, but still a high-major) in Oregon. As a result, the metrics for Princeton are much prettier than those at Yale, Princeton’s chief competition in the league. NET: Princeton 109, Yale 149. KenPom: Princeton 112, Yale 143. BPI (Basketball Power Index): Princeton 128, Yale 155. When Yale was in the Ivy driver’s seat a few weeks ago, the Bulldogs were being slotted as a No. 15 seed in experts’ brackets, but with the Tigers now in charge, I’ve been seeing them pop up as a No. 14.
But unlike with Rutgers and Seton Hall, there is no at-large bid awaiting Princeton if it does not win “Ivy Madness” in Boston in two weeks. It must win the conference title to advance.
A Princeton win Saturday at Penn or a Yale loss to Brown will clinch the Tigers the No. 1 seed in the four-team tourney. Even in the event of a tie at 11-3, the standard tiebreakers won’t separate Princeton and Yale because they’ll each have beaten the other once and have the same record against Penn, Cornell and so on down the list. Per league rules, it then turns to a comparison of the averages of the teams’ Sagarin, KenPom, BPI and NET ratings... which, as I established a paragraph ago, favor Princeton by a wide margin right now. All in all, Princeton is expected to face Cornell in the 1-4 game on March 12, the first Ivy Tournament game since 2019.
Let’s swing over to the MAAC and put Saint Peter’s (14-11, 12-6), Monmouth (18-11, 10-8) and Rider (11-17, 7-11) in the same boat. A maximum of one of these teams can make the NCAA Tournament, and the favorite among them is the Peacocks, who have swept Monmouth and are positioning themselves as the second or third seed in the MAAC Tournament with an eye on top seed Iona.
The top five seeds in this conference get a first-round bye at their conference tourney in Atlantic City. But if you take a gander at the MAAC standings right now, you’ll see Marist with a 9-9 conference record, then... (slowly counts) five teams tied at 7-11. Basically, if Marist loses its final two games of the regular season, any of those teams, including Rider, has a way to get the fifth and final bye. Major, major props to Jaden Daly’s Daly Dose of Hoops and his mastery of MAAC tiebreaking scenarios.
I’m hoping to catch the Monmouth-Rider season finale in person on Saturday afternoon. But if I had to hitch my Jersey-blooded hopes to one of these teams to take down Iona, Saint Peter’s and defensive star KC Ndefo seem to have what it takes. I wouldn’t count Monmouth all the way out, either – the Hawks did take Iona to OT and lose by one point – but the MAAC season has really laid a beating on them.
NJIT (11-16, 6-11 America East) concludes its regular season tonight at Stony Brook and desperately needs a win. Only the top eight teams of this 10-team league make the conference tournament, and NJIT is battling UMass Lowell for that last spot. Lowell is 6-10 in conference with two games in the next three days. We hardly knew ye, Highlanders.
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That’s one lengthy newsletter, but hopefully it explains some things and sets the table for an entertaining couple of weeks. I’ll skip league power rankings and save them for next Monday, which, given everything going on, likely will be another mega edition. I’ll be back in Newark tomorrow for Seton Hall’s home finale. Till Thursday, enjoy the hoops!