Preseason crystal ball! Best vs. worst case for all 8 New Jersey teams

The 2023-24 season is about to tip off. Let's peer into the crystal ball to see what may lie ahead for Rutgers, Seton Hall, Princeton and more.

Not gonna lie: I was pretty proud of myself last November when reviewing my preseason predictions from the year before.

Look back to 2021-22 with me for a second. Seton Hall as a lower-seed NCAA Tournament team? Rutgers sweating on Selection Sunday? Princeton “in the running” for the Ivy League title? Sure, I nailed those increasingly vague declarations.

So in the interest of fairness, let’s point and laugh at how I repeatedly swung and missed on my predictions for 2022-23:

“Final call: Richmond and his new backcourt mates gel, and the middle of the Big East is wide-open enough for the Pirates to make a late-season run and earn one of the last at-large bids. Holloway returns to March Madness coaching his alma mater – no pressure.”

“Final call: The expectations at Rutgers are different now than they ever were before Pikiell. His program rises to the challenge, wins some close games in February and goes dancing.”

“Final call: Not a tournament team yet, but Monmouth introduces itself to the (CAA), manages to beat Hofstra and Delaware once or twice and finishes a respectable seventh out of 13 teams.”

“Final call: There’s a vacuum right behind Iona in this league that Rider is capable of occupying. Crazy things often happen in the MAAC Tournament, but I can see this coming down to an Iona-Rider final in Atlantic City for the league’s auto bid.”

“Final call: Expectations are low. FDU surprises one or two opponents as Anderson begins to implement his style and system, but the record won’t be pretty at the end of the year.”

Here’s what happened instead: FDU’s record was pretty, you may even say beautiful, and the Knights became the second No. 16 seed to fell a No. 1. Rutgers did not go dancing. Seton Hall did not go dancing. Monmouth had one of the worst seasons in all of Division I (though they did win a game against Delaware). And while Rider finished second in the MAAC regular-season race, the Broncs got nowhere close to the conference title game.

I’ll give myself the slightest credit for saying Princeton would win the Ivy League (by beating Penn in the final – whoops! That was the semifinal matchup), but points deducted for not prophesying the Sweet 16, of course.

What’s the takeaway here? Was I too optimistic about Rutgers and Hall, too much of a homer? It’s a potential bias I always want to monitor – I’m not a fan of any of these programs in particular, but watching the same teams consistently can make it harder to see the forest for the trees. But remember, Rutgers and Hall were both coming off tournament trips and seemed to have momentum brewing. They were bubble teams in ESPN’s bracketology column to start the year.

If anything, the real takeaway is how unpredictable this sport can be. What I never would have predicted when I launched Guarden State in 2021 is that we’d see Saint Peter’s, Princeton and FDU all pull off storybook tournament upsets in short order. Lucky me.

So here we are, the 2023-24 season mere hours away, and after working out my potential best cases and worst cases for all eight programs… they’re more pessimistic top to bottom.

Here are my personal power rankings of New Jersey’s eight D1 teams, which will dictate our order for each team’s crystal ball section.

Preseason N.J. power rankings:

1. Rutgers

2. Princeton

3. Seton Hall

4. Rider

5. Fairleigh Dickinson

6. Monmouth

7. Saint Peter’s

8. NJIT

Rutgers

Preseason poll: 10th in Big Ten; Lindy’s Magazine preseason ranking: 10th in Big Ten; KenPom preseason ranking: 12th in Big Ten, No. 59 nationally

One-sentence summary: Cliff Omoruyi returns as the anchor of a Rutgers program that wants people to know it is faster, more athletic and deeper than in years past, which may help the Scarlet Knights gain footing in the middle of a Big Ten full of question marks.

If all goes right… “Glue guy” Mawot Mag’s return from injury helps Rutgers reassemble the puzzle a bit, even accounting for the departures of Caleb McConnell, Paul Mulcahy and Cam Spencer. Freshmen Gavin Griffiths and Jamichael Davis play productive minutes on the perimeter right away, while Omoruyi gets help in the frontcourt from sophomore Antwone Woolfolk. There’s a vacuum behind Purdue and Michigan State that Rutgers rises to fill, and the Scarlet Knights win just enough in February to get back to March Madness.

If all goes wrong… With fewer holdovers from last year than Rutgers has usually had, everything looks like a work in progress. A la two years ago, there are some early stumbles in the nonconference schedule. Big Ten opponents figure out Omoruyi and can double-team him because Rutgers doesn’t have enough shooters to make them think twice. Fans start thinking ahead to Ace Bailey and 2024-25 as Rutgers slides back into the NIT.

Final call: I see winnable games against power-conference opponents in November and December against Georgetown, Wake Forest, Seton Hall and Mississippi State. Rutgers takes three of those four to help its NET number before encountering trouble on early-January trips to Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan State. February is once again the key, and this time the Scarlet Knights win the games they should while adding one or two resume-boosting upsets to secure a double-digit NCAA Tournament seed.

Princeton

Preseason poll: Second in Ivy League; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Second in Ivy League; KenPom preseason ranking: Second in Ivy League, No. 123 nationally

One-sentence summary: The Tigers aren’t sneaking up on anyone after beating Arizona and Missouri to reach the Sweet 16 seven months ago, so in the absence of Tosan Evbuomwan and Ryan Langborg, last year’s precocious freshman class will need to take another step up to help Matt Allocco and company.

If all goes right… The ceiling for this program has been settled: a tournament team that can make power-conference teams sweat in the first few rounds. Mitch Henderson and his staff do it again, reformulating just how to run the offense without Evbuomwan distributing from the middle. The motto at Princeton is simply “make shots,” and even against a stacked Yale team, they can win Ivy Madness by doing just that.

If all goes wrong… The losses of not only Evbuomwan but also center Keeshawn Kellman loom large, and Princeton starts getting beaten inside each night. The overall talent still means their floor is something like third place in the Ivy, but the Tigers fall in the conference tournament.

Final call: Here’s where it would be very easy to skew too optimistic toward the home team. Instead, sitting here on Nov. 6, give me Yale over Princeton in the Ivy final. The Bulldogs take the core of last year’s roster, only improve upon it, stay healthy and storm into March Madness… looking to be the next Princeton.

Seton Hall

Preseason poll: Ninth in Big East; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Eighth in Big East; KenPom preseason ranking: Seventh in Big East, No. 56 nationally

One-sentence summary: Shaheen Holloway had to remake his roster for his second season at Seton Hall, adding Big East experience (Dylan Addae-Wusu) and much more height (three new centers) to a respectable core of Kadary Richmond, Al-Amir Dawes and Dre Davis.

If all goes right… Holloway starts to work his magic on a backcourt rotation that includes not only the four veterans mentioned above, but four-star freshman Isaiah Coleman and an improved Jaquan Sanders. Elijah Hutchins-Everett and Jaden Bediako bolster the five spot, Seton Hall catches a few teams by surprise in January and February and the Pirates at least get back in the tournament conversation.

If all goes wrong… Put simply, the new Big East is too strong. The Pirates’ ninth-place preseason vote may feel too low, but when the likes of UConn, Marquette, Creighton, Xavier and Villanova make up the top half of your league, and St. John’s has the potential to shoot into the stratosphere with Rick Pitino, ninth might be Hall’s final destination too.

Final call: The Pirates stay in the bracketology mix into January before a string of losses against top-tier opponents puts them too far behind the 8-ball to catch up. But there’s an improvement in overall play in Holloway’s second year and promise for the immediate future.

Rider

Preseason poll: First in MAAC; Lindy’s preseason ranking: First in MAAC; KenPom preseason ranking: Second in MAAC, No. 229 nationally

One-sentence summary: Rick Pitino and most of his best players departed Iona, and the MAAC dubbed Rider the heir apparent – crowning the Broncs preseason favorites and Mervin James the preseason player of the year – but it’s up to Kevin Baggett and his players to make good on the opportunity.

If all goes right… The Broncs wind up with the strongest starting five in the MAAC with Corey McKeithan providing stringent defense and transfer T.J. Weeks Jr. complementing Allen Powell in the outside shooting department. James lives up to the hype and averages a double-double. Most importantly, Rider doesn’t bow to the pressure and insanity of the MAAC Tournament and wins out, returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1994.

If all goes wrong… Rider went 9-6 in conference games decided by six points or fewer or in overtime last season. That feels in danger of sliding the wrong way in a hurry. With a target on their backs, the Broncs can’t close out MAAC foes in tight games, tumbling down the standings and making Atlantic City a much more strenuous week.

Final call: In a league with such high parity like the MAAC, the smart money is on a conference tournament upset taking Rider out once again. I’ll believe in the Broncs in the postseason when I see it.

Fairleigh Dickinson

Preseason poll: Third in NEC; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Fourth in NEC; KenPom preseason ranking: Third in NEC, No. 310 nationally

One-sentence summary: There’s attention on this program like never before after the Knights stunned Purdue in the round of 64, and while the architect of that team, Tobin Anderson, took the Iona job, assistant Jack Castleberry was promoted to coach a roster that returns 64% of last year’s minutes and almost 59% of its scoring.

If all goes right… Sean Moore, Ansley Almonor and Joe Munden Jr. show the way, and they get added help from key reserves on last year’s team like Brayden Reynolds and Heru Bligen. Castleberry settles into Anderson’s role and it feels like FDU picks up right where it left off, winning the Northeast for a second straight year.

If all goes wrong… It’s too tall a task to replace the backcourt duo of Demetre Roberts and Grant Singleton, the sparkplugs who followed Anderson here from St. Thomas Aquinas and made this offense go. FDU has to face an increased challenge from the likes of Merrimack and Sacred Heart, and this time the bounces don’t go their way.

Final call: Here’s the reality: In this nine-team conference, only seven are capable of making the NCAA Tournament because Stonehill and newcomer Le Moyne are ineligible while transitioning to Division I. This works in FDU’s favor just from a pure math standpoint, and why bet against the guys who have already done it? FDU wins the Northeast – and gets a No. 16 seed – once again.

Monmouth

Preseason poll: 11th in CAA; Lindy’s preseason ranking: 12th in CAA; KenPom preseason ranking: 10th in CAA, No. 294 nationally

One-sentence summary: Monmouth started last season 1-20 before a 6-6 finish, and a number of contributors return a year older and wiser, while King Rice welcomes in his high-scoring son Xander as a grad transfer.

If all goes right… Xander Rice’s impact is immediate. Monmouth, one of the least efficient offenses in D1 last year (354th per KenPom metrics), gets back to doing what we’ve seen it do during its MAAC years. This doesn’t bring the Hawks into the crowded top tier of the CAA, but there’s a noticeable jump in Year 2 in the league.

If all goes wrong… The Hawks don’t find their footing in time for a brutal start to the CAA schedule that includes Towson, UNC Wilmington and Charleston. They’re still better than a year ago, but defensively they can’t slow many teams down and they settle for another conference record in the 5-13, 6-12 range.

Final call: The key will be the frontcourt, and what pairing Klemen Vuga with sophomore Amaan Sandhu or transfer Nikita Konstantynovskyi allows Monmouth to do differently this year. That should help the Hawks stand their ground against more CAA teams. A .500 showing in the league or slightly better is most likely.

Saint Peter’s

Preseason poll: 10th in MAAC; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Ninth in MAAC; KenPom preseason ranking: 10th in MAAC, No. 290 nationally

One-sentence summary: The Peacocks more or less started from scratch last year after Holloway and his best players from the 2022 Elite Eight team departed; Year 2 of the Bashir Mason era could be a step toward consistency, with Latrell Reid leading an experienced roster.

If all goes right… MAAC coaches must memorize the name Corey Washington. The former three-star high school recruit showed great flashes as both a scorer and rebounder as a freshman. He makes another leap forward and the rest of this roster takes shape around him, leading to a surprise upper-half finish in the league.

If all goes wrong… Besides Washington, who shot 70.6 percent from the field last season, there just isn’t enough consistent shooting on this team after Saint Peter’s finished 324th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency in 2022-23. The Peacocks can’t dig out of the bottom of the MAAC just yet.

Final call: The Peacocks make some strides and take advantage of the inevitable parity throughout the league to finish with eight or nine league wins.

NJIT

Preseason poll: Ninth (last) in America East; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Ninth (last) in America East; KenPom preseason ranking: Ninth (last) in America East, No. 323 nationally

One-sentence summary: Longtime Kevin Willard assistant Grant Billmeier takes over a program that has a .315 winning percentage over the past four seasons, the first step in a rebuild with the goal of becoming a contender in the America East.

If all goes right… Vermont, Bryant and UMass Lowell make this a top-heavy conference, but is a fifth-place finish for NJIT really that far-fetched? With returners like Adam Hess, Mekhi Gray and Kjell de Graaf providing reliable scoring, the cupboard isn’t bare of individual talent.

If all goes wrong… It’s a monumental task ahead, and early returns show NJIT won’t be out of the basement for another year or two while Billmeier starts to recruit the guys he wants for his program.

Final call: At the very least, you can count on Billmeier to coach up his bigs. There will be a name or two we don’t know now who’ll become strong presences on the block, relative to the competition in the America East. The Highlanders finish seventh of nine with the trend line pointing way, way up by season’s end.