Preseason crystal ball: Best case vs. worst case for teams around New Jersey

Welcome to the 2022-23 season. What should we expect from Seton Hall, Rutgers, Princeton, Rider and Saint Peter's?

Nothing goes from zero to 60 like college basketball season. Seven months have passed since Kansas won the national championship, with nothing but transfer portal news and occasional exhibitions to hold us over. Today, there are approximately 752 games all happening at once.

Welcome to the 2022-23 season, which, for New Jersey teams, tips off later today when Rutgers hosts Columbia, Princeton welcomes Hofstra, Fairleigh Dickinson travels to Loyola Chicago and NJIT visits Saint Peter’s.

It’s now been more than a year since I launched Guarden State. In October 2021, I wanted to forge a path back to in-person sports reporting as the pandemic began to wane, and I was further motivated by an interest in how many teams from New Jersey might reach the NCAA Tournament.

The answer turned out to be three – Rutgers, Seton Hall and a little-known school called Saint Peter’s. Princeton was a few shots away from overcoming Yale in the Ivy League final and making that total four, which would be a massive haul for a state like ours.

In preparation for today, I wanted to revisit my first preseason predictions column back in the newsletter’s infancy. I was green. I hadn’t seen any teams practice in person. How close could I have gotten?

“Final call: Seton Hall finishes top-five in the conference and returns to the NCAA Tournament field as a lower seed.”

“Final call: I think we’re looking at a bubble team. Rutgers will have no shortage of opportunities for Quadrant 1 wins in the Big Ten but will need to work hard to match or enhance last year’s 5-10 record in those games, making for a sweaty Selection Sunday.”

“Final call: It all comes down to a couple of critical head-to-heads with fellow contenders Harvard and Yale – first in the regular season, then likely in the Ivy League Tournament. Princeton has what it needs to stay in the running for the Ivy’s auto bid till the bloody end.”

Damn, I’m good.

Seton Hall was the No. 6 seed in the conference tournament but technically tied for fifth in the Big East with Marquette. I’ll count it. Other teams took a pretty circuitous route to fulfilling my prognostications – looking at you, Rutgers, after you played yourselves out of serious contention and then right back in thanks to winning a couple handfuls of those Quadrant 1 conference games.

So let’s get into this! Standard caveat about not being able to foresee injuries applies. I’ve done more thorough previews of several of these teams, which I’ll link to below for anyone who wishes to go deeper.

Seton Hall

Preseason poll: Seventh in Big East; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Sixth in Big East; KenPom preseason ranking: Sixth in Big East, No. 48 nationally

One-sentence summary: After the Pirates returned to the NCAA Tournament before falling flat, it’s up to prodigal son Shaheen Holloway to create fresh enthusiasm for the program and build it into one that wins tournament games – maybe not all in Year One.

If all goes right… It’s less daunting than it looks on paper to replace the scoring and senior leadership of Jared Rhoden, Myles Cale and Bryce Aiken. Holloway recruited several talented transfers in Al-Amir Dawes, Femi Odukale and Dre Davis who share the backcourt responsibilities. This coach knows how to get the most from his players, and the early buy-in plus a rigorous nonconference schedule prepares Seton Hall to hang with the best of the Big East.

If all goes wrong… This team ranked last in the Big East in points per game (65.2) and shooting percentage (37.9) and it takes more than a snap of the fingers and some new personnel to begin improving it. Kadary Richmond doesn’t take a step forward in his progression at point guard. As Seton Hall shifts from Kevin Willard to Holloway, too many moving parts lead to a string of late November and December losses, and the Pirates don’t get it together over the winter, missing the postseason.

Final call: Richmond and his new backcourt mates gel, and the middle of the Big East is wide-open enough for the Pirates to make a late-season run and earn one of the last at-large bids. Holloway returns to March Madness coaching his alma mater – no pressure.

My New Jersey ranking: Second

Rutgers

Preseason poll (media): Eighth in Big Ten; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Sixth in Big Ten; KenPom preseason ranking: Ninth in Big East, No. 50 nationally

One-sentence summary: Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker are gone, but the strong returning core of Paul Mulcahy, Caleb McConnell and Cliff Omoruyi will aim to keep the progress in Piscataway going and guide Rutgers to a third straight NCAA Tournament for the first time ever.

If all goes right… We see a repeat of what the Scarlet Knights managed to do last season at their best, when they felled a No. 1 team in Purdue and won seven Quadrant 1 games. Steve Pikiell gets his new roster to play more consistent lockdown defense and cohesive enough offense. Some bench players like Aundre Hyatt step up with bigger contributions, and in a down year for the Big Ten, Rutgers soars to the league’s top five and a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament.

If all goes wrong… You remember when this team lost to Lafayette and UMass, right? More early-season sluggishness won’t be kind to this year’s team without a hero like Harper to dig them out. The Scarlet Knights’ rotation can’t go deeper than seven or eight and can’t grind out the league wins they did a year ago as they watch their tournament streak come to an end.

Final call: The expectations at Rutgers are different now than they ever were before Pikiell. His program rises to the challenge, wins some close games in February and goes dancing.

My New Jersey ranking: First

Princeton

Preseason poll: Second in Ivy League; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Second in Ivy League; KenPom preseason ranking: First in Ivy League, No. 143 nationally

One-sentence summary: Ivy Player of the Year Tosan Evbuomwan and friends set out to rectify last season’s near-miss of the NCAA Tournament, when the Tigers were the best team in the league all the way until Ivy Madness arrived.

If all goes right… Ethan Wright and Drew Friberg were great starting at the two and three for Princeton, but what if I told you that Ryan Langborg and Matt Allocco both had better 3-point percentages? It’s their turn to follow in a long line of Tigers who “make shots,” as their motto goes. Princeton cruises through the Ivy schedule again, and this time, it has the benefit of playing the Ivy tournament at home. Mitch Henderson’s program clinches the league and returns to March Madness.

If all goes wrong… Evbuomwan has the makings of an NBA prospect, but with so much of the opponents’ attention focused on him he struggles to replicate last year’s 16.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game. Princeton had a few breaks go its way last year – i.e. a half-court heave to beat Cornell – that it doesn’t get this time around. The Ivy isn’t deep on paper, so the Tigers likely still make Ivy Madness as a lower seed but lose to Penn or Yale.

Final call: Last year I wrote, “Princeton has what it needs to stay in the running for the Ivy’s auto bid till the bloody end.” That hasn’t changed, but this time let me get off the fence: The Tigers do the damn thing, benefitting from hosting the tournament in Jadwin Gym and beating Penn in the final. Pete Carril would be proud.

My New Jersey ranking: Fourth

Monmouth

Preseason poll: 10th in CAA; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Eighth in CAA; KenPom preseason ranking: Eighth in CAA, No. 250 nationally

One-sentence summary: Monmouth upgrades conferences for the second time in a decade, joining the Colonial Athletic Association this year, as the Hawks try to expand their athletic brand and continue playing competitive basketball, to boot.

If all goes right… Nobody scares a King Rice-coached team. Known for upsets of power conference opponents, the Hawks take down a team like Seton Hall or Syracuse in the nonconference to build momentum for the CAA schedule. Rice’s efforts to assemble a taller team pay off early, and they bang in the post enough to finish in the top half of the league.

If all goes wrong… We’re looking at a multiyear process before Monmouth is ready to compete with programs like Hofstra, Delaware and Towson year in and year out. The Hawks return less than 20 percent of last year’s minutes, scoring and rebounding and it’s a bad time to feel the growing pains.

Final call: Not a tournament team yet, but Monmouth introduces itself to the league, manages to beat Hofstra and Delaware once or twice and finishes a respectable seventh out of 13 teams.

My New Jersey ranking: Fifth

Rider

Preseason poll: Third in MAAC; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Third in MAAC; KenPom preseason ranking: Second in MAAC, No. 186 nationally

One-sentence summary: Rider brings back the majority of its contributors, adds some intriguing new pieces and has built chemistry after some late-season success last year, putting it in position to compete for a conference title.

If all goes right… Dwight Murray Jr. leads the Broncs in scoring and assists for the third straight season and makes a case for MAAC Player of the Year. The return of Tyrel Bladen and the addition of transfer Tariq Ingraham give coach Kevin Baggett more bigs to work with, which in turn means more ways to win conference games. Iona will take them seriously after two regular-season battles, but Rider pulls through to win the MAAC Tournament and a No. 14 seed in March Madness.

If all goes wrong… Opponents have a plan for Murray, Mervin James and company. The league is too chaotic – fifth through 11th (last) were separated by just two games in the standings last year – and Rider doesn’t have enough shooting prowess to keep up with some of its rivals. It leads to a lower seed and a longer path through the conference tourney, and with an early exit the high potential is never quite realized.

Final call: There’s a vacuum right behind Iona in this league that Rider is capable of occupying. Crazy things often happen in the MAAC Tournament, but I can see this coming down to an Iona-Rider final in Atlantic City for the league’s auto bid.

My New Jersey ranking: Third

Saint Peter’s

Preseason poll: Tied for eighth in MAAC; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Eighth in MAAC; KenPom preseason ranking: Fourth in MAAC, No. 206 nationally

One-sentence summary: The Peacocks will always have March 2022, but this group is almost entirely brand-new, led by new coach Bashir Mason, and more or less starting from square one.

If all goes right… Guards Jaylen Murray and Isiah Dasher, some of the only holdovers from last year’s tournament team, smoothly take over the leadership of this team. LIU transfer Alex Rivera adds some scoring and rebounding and Oumar Diahame makes the most of increased minutes as this team’s biggest big. Come February and March, nobody wants to play the Peacocks – and from there, you just never know what magic might happen.

If all goes wrong… The energized fan base at this small school quickly realize that this is the start of a rebuild. They understand how lucky they were last spring and recognize it will take time to get back to that level – but in the short term, it might mean some ugly results.

Final call: Middle of the pack in the MAAC, at best. Let’s see if the Peacocks make me look foolish for my skepticism.

My New Jersey ranking: Sixth

NJIT

Preseason poll: Eighth in America East; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Eighth in America East; KenPom preseason ranking: Eighth in America East, No. 338 nationally

One-sentence summary: The Highlanders finished ninth of 10 in the America East last year but return enough players and one exciting prospect to take a stab at climbing the ranks.

If all goes right… Point guard Paul McMillan, the 173rd overall recruit in the Class of 2022 according to the 247Sports composite, chose tiny NJIT for its academics and welcoming atmosphere. He doesn’t take long to outshine the small-conference competition and give NJIT a boost. Coach Brian Kennedy has led this program to a 22-win season before; 20 isn’t out of the question with McMillan and Miles Coleman (15.6 points, 5.7 rebounds last year) gelling.

If all goes wrong… Returning a good chunk of last year’s players isn’t quite enough when last year’s group finished ninth. The Highlanders were outshot and outrebounded and had the second-worst turnover margin in the league, to boot. The league may be top-heavy with Vermont, UMBC and newcomer Bryant, but it proves too difficult for NJIT to make any progress up the standings.

Final call: No better than sixth in what’s now a nine-team league. McMillan makes the conference all-rookie team.

My New Jersey ranking: Seventh

Fairleigh Dickinson

Preseason poll: Tied for sixth in Northeast; Lindy’s preseason ranking: Ninth in Northeast; KenPom preseason ranking: Ninth in Northeast, No. 355 nationally

One-sentence summary: It’s the start of a rebuild in Hackensack as Tobin Anderson takes over for Greg Herenda.

If all goes right… The French-Canadian duo of Sebastien Lamaute and Pier-Olivier Racine keep the Knights afloat in a time of transition. After a down year, Racine returns to his 2020-21 averages of 6.4 points and 3.3 rebounds to give FDU something to work with in the post.

If all goes wrong… The Knights went 4-22 last season and had the unusual distinction of having more conference wins (5-13 record) than overall wins due to the conference’s COVID-19 forfeiture policy at the time. 5-13 got them a tie for a last place. There’s nothing worse than staying in the basement.

Final call: Expectations are low. FDU surprises one or two opponents as Anderson begins to implement his style and system, but the record won’t be pretty at the end of the year.

My New Jersey ranking: Eighth

………

Phew, we made it. As always, thanks for reading. A couple nuggets to leave you with:

• Joe Lunardi’s preseason bracketology predictions for ESPN couldn’t have Rutgers and Seton Hall more firmly on the bubble than this. As the new season dawns, Rutgers is projected as the last team in the field – and Hall is the first team out.

• I’ll be watching games from home Monday night and plan to head out to Monmouth-Seton Hall on Wednesday night in Newark. When I visited Monmouth practice last month, I asked Rice about Holloway, his counterpart at Saint Peter’s for several years, getting the job at Hall. His answer, as usual, is deep and worth sharing in full:

“I probably was one of his first phone calls, me calling him. I talked to Shaheen about these things a long time. When he first became a head coach we did a lot of talking to each other. And I just watched and I just kept telling him he’s great at this, and (Saint Peter’s) was just one of the places he was gonna be. But we really became good friends over COVID. And then also, when you become a head coach and you’re a Black coach, there’s not a lot of people to call. So Shaheen and I knew each other and he was in the league, it really drew us together just to try to support each other, what we were dealing with out in the world more so than just basketball. So now he gets that job, I’m happy for his family. I’m happy for Seton Hall because I think he is the perfect person to lead them for the next 20 years.”

• That’s it! Enjoy opening night!