Preseason crystal ball: Best vs. worst case for all 8 teams in New Jersey

The 2024-25 season tips off today! Let's peer into the crystal ball to see what may lie ahead for Rutgers, Seton Hall, Princeton and more.

Some college basketball fans liken this day to Christmas morning. I find myself feeling more like it’s the first day of school, not just because I was a nerd who enjoyed going to class, but because we’re at the dawn of a new season and we have so much learning to do.

How will UConn fare in its quest to be three-peat national champions after four starters moved on to the NBA? Will the likes of Alabama and Houston still deliver on their usual strengths (high-octane offense and smothering defense, respectively) and is a national title finally in the cards for either program? Who will be the team we all should’ve seen coming this offseason?

That also goes for the eight teams under my purview here in New Jersey. We think we know what’s coming from Rutgers and Princeton this year; Seton Hall, maybe less so, due to its revamped roster. But once these teams have a game under their belts, we can really start to study.

Before getting to my fourth annual “preseason crystal ball” predictions, let’s revisit the hits and misses from last year’s column.

“Final call: I see winnable games against power-conference opponents in November and December against Georgetown, Wake Forest, Seton Hall and Mississippi State. Rutgers takes three of those four to help its NET number before encountering trouble on early-January trips to Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan State. February is once again the key, and this time the Scarlet Knights win the games they should while adding one or two resume-boosting upsets to secure a double-digit NCAA Tournament seed.”

I wish I could go back in time to tell this former self that February was not, in fact, key. The Scarlet Knights did pick up a few surprising wins that month, but I had already written off their NCAA Tournament hopes by then and RU went on to have its worst campaign of the decade.

“Final call: The Pirates stay in the bracketology mix into January before a string of losses against top-tier opponents puts them too far behind the 8-ball to catch up. But there’s an improvement in overall play in Holloway’s second year and promise for the immediate future.”

Correct! Maybe it shouldn’t have been correct, but yes, the Pirates were a tourney contender whose blowout losses to Marquette, Creighton, UConn (whom they also beat) and St. John’s in the Big East tournament harmed their metrics and kept them vulnerable to bid thieves.

“Final call: Here’s where it would be very easy to skew too optimistic toward the home team. Instead, sitting here on Nov. 6, give me Yale over Princeton in the Ivy final. The Bulldogs take the core of last year’s roster, only improve upon it, stay healthy and storm into March Madness… looking to be the next Princeton.”

Yale did in fact win the Ivy, then took down Auburn in the first round of the NCAAs. Princeton didn’t quite make the league final, though, after a surprise semis loss to Brown.

“Final call: The Peacocks make some strides and take advantage of the inevitable parity throughout the league to finish with eight or nine league wins.”

I lowballed Saint Peter’s, which went 12-8 in the MAAC and ran the table in Atlantic City to make its second tournament in three years.

“Final call: In a league with such high parity like the MAAC, the smart money is on a conference tournament upset taking Rider out once again. I’ll believe in the Broncs in the postseason when I see it.”

Nail on the head. It was a 5-over-4 “upset” by seeding, but the Broncs continued to fall flat in the MAAC tourney.

I also picked FDU to make the NCAA Tournament, which turned out to be a bit of a reach. How many Jersey teams might go dancing in March 2025? (When, by the way, the East Regional will be played at the Prudential Center for just the second time.)

Here are my personal power rankings of New Jersey’s eight D1 teams, which will dictate the order I present my predictions.

1. Rutgers

2. Princeton

3. Seton Hall

4. Saint Peter’s

5. Monmouth

6. Rider

7. FDU

8. NJIT

Rutgers

Preseason poll: Seventh in Big Ten (unofficial media poll); Lindy’s Magazine ranking: Ninth in Big Ten; KenPom preseason ranking: 17th in Big Ten, 63rd nationally

One-sentence summary: Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper lead a ballyhooed five-man recruiting class the likes of which Rutgers has never seen, and the Scarlet Knights believe they’ve built a capable team around their two future NBA draft picks in order to capitalize on this talent while they still have it in the building.

If all goes right… Offense is no longer a concern on the banks. Not only does Harper distribute the ball beautifully while Bailey leads the team in scoring, Rutgers gets big shots when needed from newcomers like Zach Martini, PJ Hayes and Tyson Acuff. RU scores a big win against either Alabama or its final-day opponent at the Players Era Festival, stays ranked for most or all of the season and finishes top-three in the Big Ten. Come March Madness, they’re a feared group for any opponent.

If all goes wrong… Basing your team on the strengths of freshmen doesn’t fly in the current era of the sport, where experience gives a great advantage. The learning curve is steep, especially on defense. Things don’t click as quickly as everyone wanted, and there’s a surprise loss or two before New Year’s. Could an NIL dispute also come into play? If it will happen to any team in this state, it’s these guys. Rutgers gets buried in the Big Ten, and talent alone can’t get it back to NCAAs.

Final call: I believe in what Steve Pikiell is cooking up here. His coaching combined with a more athletic roster (with reliable shooters) makes for a very difficult team to play against. With the expectations placed on the five-stars’ shoulders, there’s also self-confidence. Rutgers stays in the national conversation all season, makes a deep Big Ten tourney run and wins at least one game in the NCAA Tournament.

Princeton

Preseason poll: First in Ivy League; Lindy’s Magazine ranking: First in Ivy; KenPom preseason ranking: First in Ivy, 74th nationally

One-sentence summary: Caden Pierce and Xaivian Lee are being heralded as two of the best juniors in the nation – and rather than lose one or both to the NBA draft or the transfer portal, Princeton gets to keep them both for a third year, making the Tigers the prohibitive favorites as they try to avenge last year’s Ivy Madness semifinal loss to Brown.

If all goes right… Pierce improves on last year’s Ivy Player of the Year campaign, but Lee takes such a big step that he surpasses his teammate and wins the award this time around. Deven Austin, back from injury, picks up where he left off in a strong freshman campaign and adds some zing on the perimeter and baseline cuts. The Tigers hold their own against Rutgers on Dec. 21, tear through the Ivy League and make the NCAAs as a No. 10 seed.

If all goes wrong… Because Pierce and Lee are the top two players in the conference, everyone will throw their best at them. Ivy League foes figure out the nuances in their game and learn how to defend and frustrate them, nullifying any talent gap. If no one else steps up in those moments, it won’t be pretty, but the floor for Princeton is still no worse than third in the Ivy.

Final call: This feels like the perfect storm: Princeton has its dynamic duo back, it’s healthier with the return of Austin, it’s motivated by the shock semifinal loss to Brown and it’s got a strong nonconference slate (Iona, Loyola Chicago, Saint Joseph’s, Furman, Rutgers, Akron) to prepare it for the winter. I have the Tigers winning the Ivy once again and garnering a No. 12 or 13 seed in the NCAAs, where they will make the coach of their first-round opponent lose several hours of sleep.

Seton Hall

Preseason poll: 10th in Big East; Lindy’s Magazine ranking: Eighth in Big East; KenPom preseason ranking: 10th in Big East, 91st nationally

One-sentence summary: Just 25.2 percent of the minutes and 18.7 percent of the scoring return from the Seton Hall team that won the NIT seven months ago; the Pirates will be starting from almost-scratch with 11 newcomers in tow.

If all goes right… Shaheen Holloway finds the right combinations early – both for his starting lineup and the four, five or even six others he’ll rotate in off the bench. He gets back to rolling out a deep rotation the way he preferred to do at Saint Peter’s; one player won’t be the star each game but someone new will keep stepping up. The Pirates stun UConn again (not that crazy based on recent history!), avoid bad losses for a change and grab one of the five or six NCAA bids awarded to a replenished Big East.

If all goes wrong… It’s a long season in Newark and South Orange. Of all the supposed options at point guard, nobody emerges and grabs a hold of the lead ball-handling duties. Roles don’t get defined, and it creates confusion and chaos on offense. Seton Hall misses the postseason altogether and we wonder where the program could be headed in the NIL era of the sport.

Final call: Scotty Middleton, Garwey Dual and Yacine Toumi should be nice portal additions who end up starting most games for this team. Isaiah Coleman grows on and off the court to complement those guys. The Pirates enter Big East play with reasonable confidence but face more talented opponents and struggle to a .500 finish. I know Hall fans don’t want to hear NIT for the third straight year, but I fear it’s the most likely outcome.

Saint Peter’s

Preseason poll: Fifth in MAAC; Lindy’s Magazine ranking: Third in MAAC; KenPom preseason ranking: Fifth in MAAC, 239th nationally

One-sentence summary: The Peacocks have reason to fan out their feathers after winning the MAAC and going to the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years, but the climb back to the top is the furthest thing from a guarantee for coach Bashir Mason and his returning guys.

If all goes right… They don’t have their top four scorers from last year, so Marcus Randolph, Armoni Zeigler, Mouhamed Sow, Brent Bland and Stephon Roberts form the new core. The philosophy stays the same Saint Peter’s – toughness, fight and defense win the day – and with contributions from a few transfers the Peacocks browbeat enough MAAC opponents to get a high seed for Atlantic City, where it’s anyone’s game.

If all goes wrong… Corey Washington, an athletic 6-foot-6 forward, was a veritable cheat code at the MAAC level but has since transferred. He missed seven games due to injury last year, and the Peacocks went 1-6 without him. This year’s team doesn’t have a good solution to replace him, SPU struggles to score and it falls to the bottom third of the league standings.

Final call: I’ll view Saint Peter’s as a top-four team in the MAAC until proven otherwise. Unlike many mid-major teams, they aren’t starting from square one, and that matters. Another NCAA trip, though, feels like a stretch as of today.

Monmouth

Preseason poll: Eighth in CAA; Lindy’s Magazine ranking: 12th in CAA; KenPom preseason ranking: Sixth in CAA, 214th nationally

One-sentence summary: The Hawks made strides in their second year in the Coastal Athletic Association, but the two main players who got them there (Xander Rice and Nikita Konstantynovskyi) have moved on as Monmouth tries to build on last year’s middle-of-the-pack finish.

If all goes right… Monmouth continues to play lights-out at home (13-1 there last season) while also learning how to win on the road (2-13 last season). That fluke about last year’s team gets ironed out with time and experience, and Jack Collins and Jaret Valencia provide enough punch that the Hawks steal their way into the top 5-6 of a conference that feels more up-for-grabs than in years past.

If all goes wrong… The losses of Rice, as a scorer and distributor, and Konstantynovskyi, as a rebounder and inside presence, are keenly felt. Monmouth also bid farewell to Jakari Spence, meaning Collins and a precocious group of sophomores must run the offense. The talent is there, but performances remain spotty and inconsistent and they are a CAA also-ran.

Final call: This is not the year to pick Monmouth to win the conference and make its first NCAA Tournament since 2006, but you get the sense it’s building in the right direction. I think the Hawks will upset league favorite Towson at home on Feb. 8 before petering out down the stretch, with four road games in their final six.

Rider

Preseason poll: Seventh in MAAC; Lindy’s Magazine ranking: Eighth in MAAC; KenPom preseason ranking: Sixth in MAAC, 248th nationally

One-sentence summary: One single player won’t replace Mervin James for the Broncs, so a cadre of new faces will need to step their game up for Rider to capitalize in the unpredictable MAAC race.

If all goes right… An offense that had begun feeling stale and inefficient gets a shot in the arm from newcomers Jay Alvarez, Zion Cruz and Tank Byard. The Broncs figure out how to hit shots from around the floor while improving on defense just enough. It finally makes a difference at the MAAC tournament, and Rider makes a slightly surprising run to the championship game.

If all goes wrong… Rider had to schedule its season-opening seven game road trip (featuring UCLA, Iowa and Villanova) for financial reasons. In the worst-case scenario, the Broncs take a beating on the road and still have a lot to figure out when MAAC play begins. They’re by no means the worst team in the newly expanded league, but by February and March they become an afterthought in the title race.

Final call: I foresee Alvarez and Cruz catching some opposing teams by surprise early on. Rider fans feel they’re in for an exciting year, but the grind of the MAAC season means an ill-timed loss or two are always around the corner. And I’ll repeat exactly what I said last November: I’ll believe in the Broncs in the postseason when I see it.

FDU

Preseason poll: Third in Northeast Conference; Lindy’s Magazine ranking: Second in NEC; KenPom preseason ranking: Sixth in NEC, 352nd nationally

One-sentence summary: Teams come and teams go from the Northeast Conference, but FDU remains, aiming to build on a reputation for winning championships; that Purdue upset is still recent enough to provide the current players inspiration.

If all goes right… Jo’el Emanuel’s innate leadership skills come through as his game takes another step and he takes over as FDU’s go-to guy on offense. Terrence Brown builds on his All-Rookie first season and is a scoring threat in every game. FDU jockeys with Wagner to be considered the class of the NEC, and a victory over the Seahawks in the NEC championship game sends the Knights back to the big dance.

If all goes wrong… There’s a reason FDU starts the season ranked 358th of 364 teams in KenPom defensive rating. Stopping teams has rarely been the program’s strength, and while playing fast is an understandable reason why, it nonetheless comes back to bite the Knights more than once throughout conference play – including an early exit from the NEC tournament.

Final call: I won’t go as far as picking FDU to win the conference like I did last year, but everything here spells a top-four finish or better in the regular season. From there, we’ll see what magic still exists in Hackensack.

NJIT

Preseason poll: Eighth in America East; Lindy’s Magazine ranking: Eighth in America East; KenPom preseason ranking: Ninth in America East, 334th nationally

One-sentence summary: Paced by super sophomore Tariq Francis, the Highlanders seek improvement in Year 2 under Grant Billmeier after finishing last in the America East and missing the conference’s postseason tournament.

If all goes right… The Highlanders enjoy Francis while they have him, as he has a season worthy of America East Player of the Year honors. Buoyed by a new rotation of bigs and forwards, Francis and company produce NJIT’s best showing since 2018-19 and win several conference games, injecting hope and excitement into the fan base.

If all goes wrong… It’s a repeat of last year, as the Highlanders have a lack of scoring options around the floor, can’t keep up with Vermonts and Bryants of the conference and wind up in last place once more.

Final call: I don’t think it’s doom and gloom in Newark. NJIT will see a nice bump in Billmeier’s sophomore campaign and will be cellar dwellers no more. Francis, Sebastian Robinson and Tim Moore all have individual seasons worthy of All-NEC consideration, and the Highlanders wind up sixth or seventh.